It’s Up To You New York!

Well Bernie Sanders trounced Hillary Clinton by double digits in the Wisconsin Primary election last Tuesday continuing his win streak of primaries and caucuses.  He also won a few delegates via his win in Wyoming although no Democrat is going to carry Wyoming in the general election in November.

So now it’s on to New York.

Hillary still leads in delegates with 1,749 vs. 1,049 for Bernie, not counting the 14 delegates at stake in Wyoming where Bernie is the projected winner.  The nomination requires 2,383 votes with over 4,600 still available in future primaries.   New York and California are the biggest prizes.

A number of polls have already projected Hillary as the winner in New York based on the fact that she previously held a New York seat in the Senate and is tight with Senator Chuckie Schumer and the rest of the NY Democratic establishment.

Hillary’s delegate lead is based on her (1) sweeping of the primaries in the southern states and (2) the “commitment” of “super-delegates.”   She picked up a pile of delegates by winning big in the south – she was the victor in South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.

Unfortunately for the Democrats sand Hillary, neither she nor any other Democratic Presidential candidate has a prayer of carrying these states in the general election in November.  These southern Democratic delegates are from states which cannot deliver the White House in November.  They are distinct minorities in heavily Republican states.

Notwithstanding, these delegates carry equal weight in the party’s nomination process.

One the other hand, Bernie has beaten Hillary in states that are traditional Democratic strongholds or states that can be swing states with the right candidate  – Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts  and most surprisingly Michigan.  He has continued his victory string in Wisconsin.  Democrats in red states outside of the old confederacy  like Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine also came out for Bernie rather than going with the “safe” choice.

Hillary’s viability is definitely on the line in New York.  It is her and Bill’s adopted home and she was a New York Senator.  If she can’t beat a 74 year old socialist Jew from Brooklyn I would say she is in serious trouble.  Even if it’s close she might be in trouble..

The campaign has gotten nastier of late and I’m sure we will all be treated to some serious mud slinging and name calling between now and then.  Hillary whined that Bernie was not even a Democrat while refusing to say he was “qualified” to be President.  Bernie replied that she was “unfit” to be President while her campaign, with great umbrage,  called for an instant retraction and an apology.

“I don’t think she is qualified if she is raising tens of millions of dollars through her super-pacs, including $15 million from Wall Street.   I don’t think you are qualified if you have voted for the disastrous war in Iraq. I don’t think you are qualified if you’ve supported virtually every disastrous trade agreement which has cost us millions of decent paying jobs.  I don’t think you’re qualified if you supported the Panama Free Trade Agreement, something which I strongly opposed and which all of you now know, has allowed corporations and wealthy people all over the world to avoid paying taxes to their countries.”

“As the Vermont senator has racked up wins — though in states where the demographic mix favored him over Clinton — his aides have spoken more confidently about the once-unthinkable possibility of becoming the nominee, and have speculated about challenging her at an open convention in July.

Sanders has also out raised Clinton for three months in a row, pulling in more than $44 million in March alone.

And before an evening rally at Temple University, Sanders met with the editorial board of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News. “I honestly believe we have the possibility of pulling off one of the greatest upsets in history,” he said, according to Philly.com.

By Thursday morning, the Clinton campaign was punching back more aggressively and mobilizing its allies to denounce Sanders — and donate money.”

By the time this is over it is going to get molto nasty, creating great difficulty in uniting the party behind the eventual winner.  There is already much talk about giving the loser the Vice Presidential spot lest the loser’s supporters stay home in November.  I know many Bernie supporters who will not vote for Hillary Clinton.

Not a good sign.

So its on to the north-east; New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Maryland where Hillary’s support is strong and thence west to the Pacific coast.

As for the GOP, Trump got thumped badly in Wisconsin giving Ted C his first victory. Trump will win in New York; nobody in New York will vote for Cruz and Kasich’ support all but collapsed in Wisconsin.  He is not expected to be a major factor in New York.

How big Trump wins is the issue; a small win will not return his momentum.  He hasn’t not been able to garner more than 35 – 40% of the Republican vote; with multiple candidates that was good enough to win.  Going forward in a two way fight with Cruz it may not be enough to clinch the nomination.  New York however is the exception.  New Yorkers don’t vote for Texans.

There is probably a 75% chance that Trump will not have enough votes to clinch the nomination on the first ballot.  Delegates are then freed up to vote for whom they like.  The establishment doesn’t want Trump and Cruz is the most hated man in the Senate; even his own colleagues hate him.  Paul Ryan is waiting in the wings

Should be lots of fun in Cleveland!

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