It Ain’t Over Till it’s Over

Well Hillary Clinton crushed Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina Democratic primary election last night, winning 73% of the votes and a proportional number of delegates to the Democratic Convention which will pick the nominee.

Clinton won on the strength of the black vote which constitutes a majority of the vote in South Carolina.  She polled over 80% of black votes while Bernie carried a majority of the white voters.  Bill Clinton was in the state supporting Hillary and he remains popular in the black community of this most “southern” state.

Bernie’s positions on Wall Street, NAFTA, criminal justice reform and TPP do not sell here although Hillary has picked up and now supports criminal justice reform.

It was her husband who passed the “tough on crime” legislation which has resulted in the United States incarcerating more of it’s citizens than virtually any other country.

Bill also brought us “financial reform,”  the demise of Glass Steagell and NAFTA, which has cost massive job loss in the industrial sector.

Yea, I’m for that.  Not,

While Bernie may still have some traction in the industrial heartland, the “super Tuesday” primaries will make or break his campaign.  More than a dozen states and territories will hold primaries on March 1 and it’s do or die.

The southern states, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia  and Arkansas are expected to go for Hillary while Vermont, Massachusetts and possibly Minnesota  are probably Bernie’s.    Up in the air are the likes of Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas,  and Alaska although the polls indicate a big lead in Texas for Hillary.   Bernie probably needs to win at least one or two of these, Colorado or Oklahoma,  to continue a modicum of momentum and have a much better chance in Ohio, California and New York.

Oh well.

Meanwhile, this past week conservative donors have engaged a major GOP consulting firm in Gainesville, Florida to research the feasibility of mounting a late, independent run for president amid growing fears that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination.

A memo prepared for the group zeroes in on ballot access as a looming obstacle for any independent candidate, along with actually identifying a viable, widely known contender and coalescing financial support for that person. The two states with the earliest deadlines for independent candidates, Texas and North Carolina, also have some of the highest hurdles for independents to get on the ballot, according to the research.

“All this research has to happen before March 16, when inevitably Trump is the nominee, so that we have a plan in place,” a source familiar with the discussions said. March 16 is the day after the GOP primary in Florida, a winner-take-all contest that Marco Rubio supporters have identified as a must-win to stop Trump’s early momentum.”

The document, stamped “confidential,” was authored by staff at Data Targeting, a Republican firm based near University of Florida. The memo notes that “it is possible to mount an independent candidacy but [it] will require immediate action on the part of this core of key funding and strategic players.”

Trump continues to win primaries with 35 -40% of the primary vote as Rubio and Cruz split the rest.  Many of the states thus far award delegates proportionally thus giving Trump a delegate lead (not insurmountable) but Florida is a winner take all state -a Trump win here (and he is leading) would be disastrous in the view of many party regulars.

Would the party stalwarts  run Rubio, Cruz or even Romney or McCain against Trump in a third party campaign rather than see him as the standard bearer?

The risks are clearly (a) Hillary (assuming she beats Bernie) as President or (b) none of the three candidates wins a majority of the electoral college and the election goes to the House of Representatives.   A plurality in the popular vote would not mean election victory.  A majority of the vote would probably translate into a majority in the electoral college however a majority would be more difficult to achieve with three candidates.

Well it’s early but there is plainly much agita among the Republican establishment.











About toritto

I was born during year four of the reign of Emperor Tiberius Claudius on the outskirts of the empire in Brooklyn. I married my high school sweetheart, the girl I took to the prom and we were together for forty years until her passing in 2004. We had four kids together and buried two together. I had a successful career in Corporate America (never got rich but made a living) and traveled the world. I am currently retired in the Tampa Bay metro area and live alone. One of my daughters is close by and one within a morning’s drive. They call their pops everyday. I try to write poetry (not very well), and about family. Occasionally I will try a historical piece relating to politics. :-)
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7 Responses to It Ain’t Over Till it’s Over

  1. beetleypete says:

    I don’t envy you, whoever wins. (As it surely won’t be Bernie…)
    Nice to see Chet Baker featured, one of my favourites.
    best wishes, Pete.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. It’s a sad state of affairs for those of us who still live in the U.S. The results of the South Carolina democratic primary show us in glaring numbers just how powerful the Capitalists Indoctrination Process still is – despite the perceived “freedom of speech” we believe we have with the Internet.

    Bernie Sanders is a good person with moral clarity. Hillary Clinton is not.

    Bernie Sanders risked his freedom while fighting for the rights of non-white people in the 1960s. Hillary Clinton supported the ultra-conservative, pro-war, anti-civil rights views of Barry Goldwater in the 1960s. (I know she’s evolved on the issues, but the point is to show the difference between the two candidates and to point out that one has ALWAYS had moral clarity – something that should always be in play when making important decisions – not only when it is politically expedient to do so).

    Bernie Sanders opposed the horribly immoral war in Iraq that displaced millions of innocent women and children merely to make more money for the executives of Exxon-Mobil, Unocal, Bechtel, Blackwater and other insidiously evil war profiteers. Hillary Clinton supported the illegal invasion of this sovereign nation.

    Bernie Sanders supports health care as a right that all citizens deserve. Hillary Clinton accepts large amounts of money from corporate executives who want to continue the practice of doling out good health only to those who obey the rules of the dominant culture and have enough money to help make the executives wealthy.

    Bernie Sanders respects the freedoms of his fellow citizens. Hillary Clinton voted for the un-Constitutional Patriot Act and for the re-authorization of it.

    Bernie Sanders wants to regulate the banking “industry” and prevent them from keeping control of our elections. Hillary Clinton might allow a small measure of oversight – just enough to appear to have an effect – but not enough to prevent them from dictating U.S. policy.

    And yet over 80% of Black people and over 50% of White people voted for Hillary Clinton in South Carolina yesterday. Wow.

    There is more to point out, but I believe I’ve made my point.

    Peace to all…

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I guess the only good news in all this is that Hillary’s administration may likely be a caretaker administration as Reagan’s was (due to Alzheimers). Reports are coming out that she hasn’t fully recovered from her 2012 head injury:

    Trump will definitely require a caretaker.


  4. sojourner says:

    “Look for the silver lining?”
    Good luck!
    Looking at Hillary’s photo above, is it any wonder that Bill looks and longs elsewhere? And her looks are, by far, the best thing about her. Yegads is right!;-)


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